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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 11 January 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO TO CHINA COAL ROUNDS FIXING AT AROUND $10K - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
USG rates improved both for backhaul and fronthaul, Ultras from USG to Japan receiving around $26k daily while supras 1-2k less for same ...
Wednesday, 10 January 18
2018: IT IS PROJECTED, THE SHIPBUILDERS WILL DELIVER FOUR HUNDRED FORTY NEW VESSELS IN 2018
Headlines from IMF's 2017 – World Economic Outlook:
January 2017 - “After a lacklustre outturn in 2016, economic activity is p ...
Tuesday, 09 January 18
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED COAL REFERENCE PRICE UP IN JANUARY
COALspot.com: the Indonesian Coal Price Reference ( HBA) rose 1.60 per cent in January 2018, the latest ministerial decree showed.
The benchma ...
Friday, 05 January 18
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT FELL 32.4% PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 10.5 million short tons ...
Friday, 05 January 18
COAL DEMAND TO REMAIN FLAT TO 2022, RESULTING IN A DECADE OF STAGNATION - IEA
Global demand for coal should remain nearly flat between 2017 and 2022, resulting in a decade of stagnation for coal consumption, according to the ...
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Showing 1831 to 1835 news of total 6871 |
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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