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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 19 January 18
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT WAS 13.5 MMST FOR THE WEEK ENDING JANUARY 13, EIA SAYS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.5 million short tons ...
Thursday, 18 January 18
WORLD TRADE IN HARD COAL RISES BY 1.5% IN 2017 - KOHLENIMPORTEURE
Press Release: World Trade in Hard Coal Rises by 1.5% in 2017. German Steam Coal Imports Plummet by 15% in 2017 – in Contrast to Other Sector ...
Wednesday, 17 January 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we are now well into the first month of 2018, the mood across the entire offshore industry undeniably remains rather positive following the oil ...
Monday, 15 January 18
THE FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FLAT TO WEAK THIS WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com: The daily average earnings for Supramax, for the route Indonesia to India passing through Singapore has stayed firm, week over week, ...
Monday, 15 January 18
QUEENSLAND SHIPPED 210.8 MT OF COAL IN 2017, DOWN 5% YOY QUEENSLAND RESOURCES COUNCIL
Queensland's coal exports over the 12 months reached 210.8 mt which is down 10 mt or 5 per cent from the previous year’s record of 220.8 ...
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Showing 1826 to 1830 news of total 6871 |
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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