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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 31 January 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
Days before the celebrations of the Lunar New Year, the dry bulk market seems to be holding well, against negative predictions. Period numbers repo ...
Monday, 29 January 18
BALTIC INDEX GAINS ON STRONGER BIG VESSEL ACTIVITY
COALspot.com: The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities rose this past week and ending on a positive note week ov ...
Monday, 29 January 18
U.S.WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT UP 8.7% W/W - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 14.6 million short tons ...
Wednesday, 24 January 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
Since the beginning of the New Year we have been witnessing the BDI correcting downwards, which nonetheless seems to have no effect at ...
Tuesday, 23 January 18
OIL MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
Brent oil futures hit a three year high on January 16th touching around USD 70.30 before falling back down to around USD 68.60 at the Time of this ...
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Showing 1821 to 1825 news of total 6871 |
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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