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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 06 February 18
THE FUNDAMENTALS FOR INDIAN COAL IMPORTS CONTINUE TO LOOK PROMISING - TORVALD KLAVENESS
Back in August we reported that the fundamentals impacting Indian coal imports looked more promising.
Trade flow data today implies 17.4Mt of ...
Monday, 05 February 18
SUPRAMAX : INDONESIA TO INDIA PASSING THROUGH SINGAPORE HAS SOFTENED
COALspot.com: The daily average earnings for Supramax, for the route Indonesia to India passing through Singapore has softened, week over week, own ...
Friday, 02 February 18
SUPRAMAX : INDONESIA TO CHINA COAL TRIPS ARE PAYING AROUND MID USD 9000 - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Rather quiet week within Atl, specially Continent due to lack of cargoes.
According to Fearnleys Weekly - Dry bulk report published ...
Friday, 02 February 18
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED 54.1 MMST, DOWN 8.8% YOY - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.3 million short tons ...
Thursday, 01 February 18
RISING US OIL EXPORTS, MARKET DISRUPTION, BRENT-WTI SPREAD - WOOD MACKENZIE
What will US tight oil growth do to crude markets? The build-up in volumes early this decade led to a supply glut that undermined prices in 2014.
...
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Showing 1816 to 1820 news of total 6871 |
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Planning Commission, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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