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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 09 February 18
COAL BUYERS SPOOKED BY INDONESIA'S NEW SHIPPING RULES - ASSOC
Buyers of Indonesian coal are holding back orders of the fuel after the government issued new shipping rules for coal and crude palm oil that would ...
Thursday, 08 February 18
ENHANCED PRODUCTION BY COAL INDIA LIMITED HELPS DECLINE IN COAL IMPORTS - UNION MINISTER OF RAILWAYS AND COAL
According to press release from PIB, as per the current import policy, coal is kept under Open General License (OGL) and consumers are free to impo ...
Thursday, 08 February 18
A NEW WEEK WITH A SOFT SENTIMENT AND DECREASING RATES IN BOTH HEMISPHERE FOR THE PANAMAXES, SAYS FEARNLEYS
Supramax
USG dropping remarkably due to lack of fresh enquiry both for fhaul and bhaul, Supras were fixed from USG to Spore-Japan range now aroun ...
Wednesday, 07 February 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES TO HIT THIRTEEN-MONTH HIGH OF $100.69 A TON
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Coal Price Reference (HBA) rose 5.39 per cent in February 2018, the latest ministerial decree showed.
The benchma ...
Wednesday, 07 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
Crude oil supply has been reported to have grown by approx. 2.5% reaching 40.1m bpd in 2017. However, tanker charter rates have been under pressure ...
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Showing 1811 to 1815 news of total 6871 |
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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