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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 17 September 18
SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE WORLD FLEET WILL FIT SCRUBBERS - FORECASTS : METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE
In recent months, there have been numerous reports of a strong pick-up in demand for scrubbers. On 1 January 2020, however, the number of ships fit ...
Saturday, 15 September 18
POWERING SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW EMISSION COAL TECHNOLOGIES - WCA
In its 5th Strategic Energy Plan this year (2018), the Japanese Cabinet recognised coal as an important energy resource, necessary for the country& ...
Friday, 14 September 18
10 YEARS ON FROM LEHMAN, HOW IS SHIPPING'S "HANGOVER"? - CLARKSONS RESEARCH
On 15th September 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers crystallised the financial crisis and the onset the worst economic downturn for a century. ...
Thursday, 13 September 18
OPEC SEES SLOWER 2019 OIL DEMAND GROWTH, WARNS ON ECONOMY
Crude Oil Price Movements
In August, the OPEC Reference Basket declined by $1.01 m-o-m, settling at $72.26/b. Crude oil futures were also down ...
Thursday, 13 September 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO-INDIA COAL RUN WAS FIXED CLOSE TO $16000 ON ULTRA - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Rates took a further drop in the beginning of the week, to later find a floor around mid-week reaching mid USD 7 level for c5 and just ...
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Showing 1616 to 1620 news of total 6871 |
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- White Energy Company Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
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