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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Saturday, 22 September 18
SHIPOWNERS URGENTLY NEED A FUEL-MANAGEMENT PLAN - METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE, BIMCO
With the majority of ship operators expected to choose low-sulphur fuel over scrubbers to comply with the new IMO sulphur cap regulation, all eyes ...
Saturday, 22 September 18
GERMANY'S MOVE TO SCRAP COAL WILL COST TAXPAYERS - BRIAN PARKIN | WILLIAM WILKES
Chancellor Angela Merkel’s plan to close Germany’s remaining coal-fired power stations will drive up subsidies for regions that mine th ...
Saturday, 22 September 18
FITCH RATINGS: WORLD GROWTH FORECAST CUT ON US-CHINA TRADE BATTLE
Protectionist US trade policies have now reached the point where they are materially affecting what remains a strong global growth outlook, with th ...
Tuesday, 18 September 18
COOLING OUTLOOK FOR COAL - KATE JONES
At a time of increasing focus on the renewables market as the world seeks to clean up its act to prevent climate change, what is the outlook like f ...
Monday, 17 September 18
GLENCORE RETURNS TO JAPAN COAL TALKS SCUPPERED BY HIGH PRICES - BLOOMBERG
Mining giant Glencore Plc and Japanese utilities have resumed thermal coal supply negotiations, restarting talks that fell apart earlier this year ...
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Showing 1611 to 1615 news of total 6871 |
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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