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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 28 September 18
INDONESIA 2018 COAL OUTPUT TARGET NOW AROUND 507 MLN T - ENERGY MINISTRY : REUTERS
Indonesia has increased its 2018 coal production target to around 507 million tonnes from a previous target of 485 million tonnes, the Energy Minis ...
Friday, 28 September 18
FITCH RATINGS: METALLURGICAL COAL MINERS MAY CURB COSTS AS PRICES SLIP
Strong cost inflation in the global metallurgical coal sector suggests that miners may focus on cost controls as prices decline from their current ...
Wednesday, 26 September 18
IS YOUR CHARTER PARTY READY FOR 2020? - METTE KRONHOLM FRAENDE, BIMCO
As the deadline for the IMO’s global low-sulphur fuel requirements fast approaches, it is necessary to carefully check the bunker clauses in ...
Wednesday, 26 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
Despite the fact that the dry bulk SnP market saw an admittedly busy summer season, there is a noticeable slowdown in activity during the past thre ...
Tuesday, 25 September 18
THE INCONVENIENT TRUTH OF RISING COAL PRICES - FORBES
Coal prices are not supposed to be rising as governments tighten environmental controls but that’s precisely what is happening at the premium ...
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Showing 1606 to 1610 news of total 6871 |
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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