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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 13 September 18
SHIPPING IS INCREASINGLY CAUGHT IN THE TRADE WAR LINE OF CROSSFIRE - PETER SAND
Once again, the already long list of tariffed goods has been made even longer. Many more commodities were hit on 23 August, but September is likely ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
THE INTERRELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LETTERS OF INDEMNITY AND CHARTERPARTY "TIME BAR" PROVISIONS - STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Introduction
A recent English Court of Appeal decision provides important guidance on the applicability of charterpar ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
IS LNG POISED FOR A NEW GROWTH CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Gas needs to work for its long-term sustainability. But the mood music is upbeat. Just 18 months ago the LNG market was depressed, anticipating an ...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
U.S. TOTAL COAL EXPORTS TO BE 107 MMST IN 2018 AND 101 MMST IN 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts U.S. coal production will decline by 1% to 768 million short tons (MMst) in 2018, despite a 10% (10 MMst) increase in coal exports.
...
Wednesday, 12 September 18
MARINE BUNKERS: THE END OF THE WORLD AS WE KNOW IT - IBIA
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The world of bunkers is heading for rapid and fundamental changes and not just because of the 0.50% sulphur cap in 2020. ...
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Showing 1621 to 1625 news of total 6871 |
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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