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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 12 September 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
A recovery in the shipping market since last year has buoyed optimism amongst the people in the industry. Yet if you are to ask most ship-owners if ...
Monday, 10 September 18
HANDYSIZE: PERIOD ACTIVITY REMAINED LIMITED WITH A 37,000DWT REPORTEDLY FIXED FOR FOUR TO SIX MONTHS AT $10,500, OPEN IN MALAYSIA IN MID-SEPTEMBER - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Rates came under pressure for the big ships last week, despite paper values holding at reasonable levels as these trades continued to ...
Thursday, 06 September 18
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALLS FOR FIRST TIME IN 3 MONTHS
COALspot.com: The benchmark price of Indonesian thermal coal falls for first time in three months.
According to the latest min ...
Thursday, 06 September 18
SUPRAMAX: SE ASIA-INDO ROUNDS WITH COAL HAVE BEEN CONCLUDED IN THE $13000S RANGE - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The big ships experiencing a bump in the road towards what is commonly expected to be by far the best period of this year. Average dai ...
Wednesday, 05 September 18
ASIAN DEMAND COULD CREATE DEFICIT IN GLOBAL LNG MARKET - FITCH RATINGS
Growing gas demand from Asia, particularly from China, could swing the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market into a deficit by 2022-2025, Fitch Rating ...
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Showing 1626 to 1630 news of total 6871 |
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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