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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 02 October 18
PANAMAX: A FURTHER RISE ACROSS ALL MAIN ROUTES THIS WEEK - ALLIED
Capesize
Finally an upward recovery was in sight in the spot market the past few days, after the prolonged negative pressure noted the weeks pr ...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
THE PRICE OF OIL CONTINUES ITS CLIMB AMIDST A SERIES OF CONCERNS REGARDING SUPPLY CONSTRAINTS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
It has been a busy week for oil traders as the price of oil continues its climb amidst a series of concerns regarding supply constraints.
...
Tuesday, 02 October 18
INDONESIA GETS READY TO MEET INCREASED COAL DEMAND FROM CHINA, FREIGHT TO RESPOND - MIKAL BOE
Indonesian coal suppliers have increased their domestic coal production target by 4.5 percent from a previous 485 million tonnes to a massive 507 m ...
Monday, 01 October 18
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000 DWT FIXED DELIVERY FOR A SURABAYA TRIP WITH REDELIVERY TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $13,500 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A stop-start market for the big ships with many expectations and few fulfilled. Holidays curtailed trading early in the week, but the ...
Monday, 01 October 18
A NO-DEAL BREXIT WILL UNDOUBTEDLY HAVE CONSEQUENCES FOR IMPORTERS AND EXPORTERS - KATE JONES, THE BALTIC BRIEFING
If you live in the UK, you might be finding it difficult to get away from the Brexit debate. “Hard Brexit”, “soft Brexit”, ...
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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