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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 24 October 18
CHINESE POWER PLANT STOCKPILES AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2015 - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
Chinese power plant coal stockpiles have climbed to approximately 83.3 million tons as of the middle of this month, said Jeffrey Landsberg in his e ...
Tuesday, 23 October 18
WILL THE U.S. COAL DECLINE CONTINUE? - FORBES
What’s Trump’s new coal proposal?
Adding to its controversial plan to leverage federal authority to keep retiring baselo ...
Monday, 22 October 18
CONTINUED HIGH LNG PRICES; TRADE WAR IMPACT LIMITED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects sustained high spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) and contract prices over the next two quarters on limited investment in LNG e ...
Monday, 22 October 18
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
The oil market in the winter season is generally characterized by demand for diesel, particularly in the northern hemisphere, leaving product marke ...
Saturday, 20 October 18
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW A LARGE VOLUME OF FIXING, WITH INDONESIA AGAIN THE DRIVING FORCE - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to last week after a shaky start, with a Coaltrans taking participants out of the market early on and with rates slippi ...
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The University of Queensland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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