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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 02 November 18
CHINA: COAL CONSUMPTION POSTS STRONG GROWTH ON BACK OF POWER GENERATION DEMAND - CHINA DAILY
China’s energy consumption experienced continuous rebound during the first three quarters in 2018, National Energy Administration announced o ...
Thursday, 01 November 18
IMO 2020 - EXPLORING THE OPTION OF SOX SCRUBBERS - SIDDHARTH MAHAJAN, GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
There are four possible methods of compliance:
1.use VLSFO (very low Sulphur oil) or blends;
2,use dis ...
Wednesday, 31 October 18
INDIA: COAL IMPORTS SURGE ON DOMESTIC SHORT SUPPLY - HINDU
Shortage of thermal coal supply in India has pushed imports up to 85 million tonnes (mt) in the first half of the current fiscal compared to 75 mt ...
Wednesday, 31 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - APOSTOLOS ROMPOPOULOS
Since the IMO’s 2020 global cap on sulphur in marine fuels is coming into force, ship-owners have to decide whether they will operate using e ...
Monday, 29 October 18
IMPLEMENTATION OF SULPHUR 2020 LIMIT - CARRIAGE BAN ADOPTED - IMO
An amendment to support consistent implementation of the forthcoming 0.50% limit on sulphur in ships fuel oil was adopted by the International Mari ...
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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