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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 29 October 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN AREA SAW FALLING RATES, WITH A 61,000DWT FIXING DELIVERY KOHSICHANG TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY INDIA, AT $10,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A market of two halves for most of the week with rates in the Atlantic firming and easing in the East for most of the week, but then, ...
Friday, 26 October 18
SHIP OPERATING COSTS EXPECTED TO RISE IN 2018 AND 2019 - MOORE STEPHENS
Total vessel operating costs in the shipping industry are expected to rise by 2.7% in 2018 and by 3.1% in 2019, according to our latest survey.
...
Friday, 26 October 18
SEVERAL CONTRACTIONS IN GLOBAL STEEL PRODUCTION - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
World Steel Association data released today shows that global crude steel production totaled approximately 151.7 million tons in September. T ...
Thursday, 25 October 18
WHAT DOES THE "IMO 2020" REGULATION REALLY SAY? A QUICK GUIDE - BIMCO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The shipping industry has all eyes firmly fixed on the topic, but what exactly do the “IMO 2020” global sulph ...
Wednesday, 24 October 18
MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
Looking at 2018 SnP activity, it is evident that Greek, Chinese and North European (German and Norwegian) owners are the top buying nationalities, ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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