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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 18 October 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO/WC INDIA SUPRAS ARE FIXING AROUND MID $14000S P/D BASIS SPORE DELIVERY
Capesize
The volatile Cape market continues this week, especially in the Pacific says Fearnleys in its latest weekly report.
...
Thursday, 18 October 18
COAL SHORTAGE HITS POWER SECTOR AGAIN; HOW INDIA CAN GET ITS PRODUCTION RIGHT - ANIL SWARUP
By convincing states of the value proposition of increased production, the record production of Fy15 & Fy16 can be emulated.
The ...
Thursday, 18 October 18
CHINA POWER REFORM NEUTRAL ON GRIDS, PRESSURES IPP MARGINS - FITCH RATINGS
China's power sector reform has a broadly neutral impact on transmission grids although it will pressure the power producers' margins, says ...
Wednesday, 17 October 18
ESCROW SERVICE FOR BALTIC MEMBERS NOW LIVE
The Baltic Exchange’s Escrow Service for its members to hold deposits for ship sale transactions goes live today (15 October). The service is ...
Wednesday, 17 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
In the last three months approximately 72 tankers changed hands involving ships larger than 33kdwt up to VLCC. 43 of those vessels had to do ...
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Showing 1586 to 1590 news of total 6871 |
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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