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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 16 October 18
A PRACTICAL OVERVIEW OF THE IMO 2020 SULPHUR CAP - CLYDE&CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
With less than eighteen months before Regulation 14.1.3 of Annex VI of the MARPOL Convention comes into effect, there are ...
Saturday, 13 October 18
SUPRAMAX: SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY IN THE INDIAN OCEAN WAS EVIDENT AND RATES JUMPED - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A sharp reversal of fortunes for the big ships as the week closed after a depressed beginning. To start with drops were sudden, with t ...
Wednesday, 10 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - ILIAS M. LALAOUNIS
During the end of last month the BHSI was hovering around 630 points, while the last observed sale on a 10-yr old Japanese Handy was the M/V Van Im ...
Monday, 08 October 18
INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL PRICE REFERENCE FELL 3.74% IN OCTOBER 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Monday, 08 October 18
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 520,000 TONS OF COLOMBIAN ORIGIN OF 5,700 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 520,000 MT of min. 5700 NAR coal of Colombian origin ...
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Showing 1591 to 1595 news of total 6871 |
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PTC India Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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