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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 12 November 18
COAL BUSINESS REMAINS PROSPECTIVE - ANTARA
Coal business happened to be sluggish in the 2012-2015 period because coal prices in the world market fell sharply, but it has begun to crawl up si ...
Monday, 12 November 18
INDONESIA'S HBA ENDS DECLINE IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 07 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASILIS MOIRIS
This has been another active week in the second-hand market for both the dry bulk and tanker sectors. Buying interest has recently increased, which ...
Monday, 05 November 18
TIGHTER FUEL RULES COULD RAISE SHIPOWNERS' COSTS AND CAPEX - FITCH RATINGS
More stringent fuel regulations regarding sulphur content could significantly increase global shipping companies’ operating costs and capex n ...
Friday, 02 November 18
COAL FETCHES 102% PREMIUM IN E-AUCTION, SURPASSING THE EARLIER HIGHEST OF 95% - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal prices have received a premium of 102% in spot e-auction during September 2018, surpassing the earlier highest of 95% premium during the spot ...
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Showing 1566 to 1570 news of total 6871 |
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The University of Queensland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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