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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 30 November 18
GOVT MULLS REQUIRING MINERS TO TURN COAL INTO GAS - THE JAKARTA POST
The government is considering requiring all coal miners to turn the raw commodity into dimethylether (DME) as a substitute for liquefied petroleum ...
Friday, 30 November 18
SUPRAMAX: N. CHINA TO INDIA OR SE ASIA SUPRAS ARE GETTING PAID AROUND US$ 6000 - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Sharp rise in spot activity and income, admittedly from very low levels, for the big ships. West Australia/China and Brazil/Far East b ...
Thursday, 29 November 18
NEW IMSBC CODE REQUIREMENTS AIM TO CONTROL LIQUEFACTION OF COAL CARGOES - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The International Maritime Solid Bulk Cargoes (IMSBC) Code describes coal as a natural, solid, combustible material consi ...
Wednesday, 28 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAIOS
Last week I had the privilege to attend the SingularityU Greece Summit, in Athens. It was a privilege because you do not often have the chance to s ...
Tuesday, 27 November 18
PANAMAX AND SUPRAMAX INDICES WITNESSED A DECLINE OF JUST BELOW 14% IN THEIR MEAN ON A MONTH-ON-MONTH COMPARISON - ALLIED SHIPPING
A month of sharp corrections and great asymmetries for the dry bulk sector, with the overall overview of the market shipping rapidly from a state o ...
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Showing 1546 to 1550 news of total 6871 |
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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