We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 21 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - DIMITRIS KOURTESIS
Halfway through the fourth and last quarter of the year, we spot a significant change in freight rates for tankers trading dirty, as well as on the ...
Tuesday, 20 November 18
FREIGHT RATES IN THE CRUDE OIL MARKET HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS - YIANNIS VAMVAKAS
Current geopolitical developments between Iran and the US, which have led the latter to re-impose its sanctions, have significantly affected oil pr ...
Tuesday, 20 November 18
GOLDEN ENERGY AND RESOURCES LEADS A$249M BID FOR AUSTRALIA-LISTED STANMORE COAL - THE STRAITS TIMES
Singapore-listed Golden Energy and Resources (GEAR) is leading deals worth up to A$249 million (S$250 million) to acquire Australia-listed Stanmore ...
Monday, 19 November 18
INDONESIA'S LEADING EIGHT COAL MINER'S COAL MINING CONTRACTS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPIRE BETWEEN YEAR 2019 - 2025
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) said, eight Coal Contract of Works (CCoW) will expected to expire between 2019 to 2026, Liputan ...
Monday, 19 November 18
SUPRAMAX: THE BSI CONTINUED TO FALL LAST WEEK, ESPECIALLY THE ASIAN ROUTES - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a cut throat couple of weeks, the market finally appeared to have found a floor and rates ticked up. Those analysts that predict ...
|
|
|
Showing 1556 to 1560 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
|
| |
| |
|
