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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 11 December 18
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 10.849 MMT OF COAL IN NOVEMBER DOWN 23.44 PERCENT MOM
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading port and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped A$ 1,574.8 mil ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
IN THE EAST, BIGGER SUPRA WAS FIXED CA US$ 10K FOR INDO-CHINA COAL ROUND - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
There is cautious optimism for the Capes, with healthier volumes and improving rates in the Pacific. West Australia round is gradually ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
U.S. COAL CONSUMPTION IN 2018 EXPECTED TO BE THE LOWEST IN 39 YEARS - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal consumption in 2018 to fall to 691 million short tons (MMst), a 4% decline from 2017 and the lowest level since 1979. U ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
DEMAND RISKS WEIGH ON GLOBAL SHIPPING SECTOR OUTLOOK - FITCH RATINGS
The global shipping sector outlook remains negative reflecting the demand-side risks of protectionism and slower economic growth, Fitch Ratings say ...
Thursday, 06 December 18
CHINA REVISES MANAGEMENT RULES ON ESTABLISHMENT OF FULLY FOREIGN-OWNED SHIPPING BUSINESSES - XINHUA
Foreign shipping companies will find it easier to establish wholly-owned subsidiaries in China thanks to a revised regulation due to take effect on ...
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Showing 1536 to 1540 news of total 6871 |
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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