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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 05 December 18
WORLD COAL PRICES FALL, WITH INDONESIA BENCHMARK FOR DECEMBER, ENDING AT LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 05 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
Is the rise in crude carrier rates driven only by seasonality, or is the recent positive reversal signaling the end of challenging days for the mar ...
Monday, 03 December 18
WCA'S ENGAGEMENT AT COP24 IN KATOWICE - WCA
The 24th Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will take place from the 2-14 December 2018 in K ...
Monday, 03 December 18
SUPRAMAX: FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN TO WEST COAST INDIA, AT $11000 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A roller-coaster week for the big ships with hopes soaring at the start for a mini last quarter revival, only to be dashed as the week ...
Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which ...
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
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