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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 26 November 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN MARKET STALLED THIS WEEK WITH A BUILD-UP OF TONNAGE - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was a positive end to the week, with West Australia/China making significant gains and firing owners’ resolve. There was talk ...
Friday, 23 November 18
GOLDEN ENERGY'S POTENTIAL ACQUISITION OF STANMORE CREDIT POSITIVE - FITCH RATINGS
Golden Energy and Resources Limited's (GEAR, B+/Positive) potential acquisition of Stanmore Coal will help the company diversify its coal opera ...
Friday, 23 November 18
ASSOCIATION CALLS FOR REVISION OF DMO SCHEME FOR COAL - JP
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) has called on the government to revise the domestic market obligation (DMO) scheme for coal, which re ...
Friday, 23 November 18
INDONESIA'S REVENUES FROM MINERAL AND COAL INCREASE TO US$ 2.858 BILLION - ANTARA
Indonesia`s non-tax state revenues from the mineral and coal sub-sector reached Rp 41.77 trillion (approximately US$ 2.858 Billion) as of Nov 16, 2 ...
Thursday, 22 November 18
SHUT OUT OF CHINA, U.S. COAL EXPORTERS FIND FAVOUR IN INDIA, FOR NOW - REUTERS
U.S. coal exporters have effectively lost a promising market in China since the imposition of tariffs as part of the ongoing trade dispute, but so ...
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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