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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 14 December 18
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1,177,000 METRIC TONS OF COAL FOR Q1' 19 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 701,000 MT of min 5,600 kcal/kg NCV coal and ...
Friday, 14 December 18
COAL IMPORT TO BE CHECKED BY RISING DOMESTIC PRODUCTION - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
The government’s effort to increase domestic coal production and power demand falling with the onset of the winters will check coal imports, ...
Thursday, 13 December 18
STRAITS AFFECTED BY TERRITORIAL DISPUTE BETWEEN SINGAPORE AND MALAYSIA - THE STANDARD CLUB
A recent territorial dispute has occurred between Singapore and Malaysia involving the Straits of Johor.
The Malaysian Attorney Gene ...
Wednesday, 12 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
China’s monthly iron ore imports dropped for the first time this year joined by declines in copper and soybeans as economic growth slows in t ...
Tuesday, 11 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
A lot of discussions have been made as to the effects of the IMO 2020 regulation on OPEX levels, investment feasibility of& ...
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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