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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 18 December 18
TOBA BARA ACQUIRES SHARES OF PT BATU HITAM PERKASA
PT Toba Bara Sejahtra Tbk, through its subsidiary PT Toba Bara Energi (“TBE”), has acquired shares ...
Monday, 17 December 18
SUPRAMAX THERE WAS STRONGER DEMAND FROM SOUTHEAST ASIA, WITH MORE COAL BEING SHIPPED - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to last week after a somewhat uncertain start as some gains made were eroded. Rates recovered later for West Australia/ ...
Monday, 17 December 18
SOUTH KOREA STATE-OWNED UTILITY KOREA EAST-WEST POWER CO. LTD ISSUED A TENDER FOR MAX 3.220 MILLION TONS OF 4200 TO 5900 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd (EWP) issued a tender for max 3,220,000 Metric Tons of coal to be loade ...
Saturday, 15 December 18
COMING CHANGES IN MARINE FUEL SULFUR LIMITS WILL AFFECT GLOBAL OIL MARKETS - EIA
International regulations limiting sulfur in fuels for ocean-going vessels, set to take effect in January 2020, have implications for vessel operat ...
Friday, 14 December 18
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 320,000 MT OF LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,300 kcal/kg NCV coal per ...
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Showing 1526 to 1530 news of total 6871 |
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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