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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 19 December 18
GLOBAL SHIPPING SCOUTS FOR FUTURE GROWTH - PETER SAND, BIMCO
Where do we go to find economic growth that spurs shipping demand in the next five years? According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), we sh ...
Wednesday, 19 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As another year is coming to an end, it is interesting to look at the main shipping markets and how these performed compared to 2017.
&nb ...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
COAL DEMAND WILL REMAIN STEADY THROUGH 2023, INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY SAYS - TOM DICHRISTOPHER, CNBC
Coal consumption is on the rise but will remain roughly stable over the next five years, the International Energy Agency forecasts.
...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
DRY BULK: IN ABSOLUTE TERMS, ALL MAIN SIZE SEGMENTS SAW THEIR ACTUAL VOLATILITY FIGURES DECREASE - ALLIED
Since the beginning of 2016, when the dry bulk market reached its absolute bottom, freight rates have been ever since on an upward trajectory. Taki ...
Tuesday, 18 December 18
COAL OUTLOOK BULLISH DESPITE WEAK CHINESE IMPORT DATA - HEREN, ICIS
Coal prices may appreciate over the remainder of 2018 even despite recent data showing falling imports from the world’s largest producer and ...
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Showing 1521 to 1525 news of total 6871 |
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Coal Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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