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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 17 April 19
LNG WESTERN AFRICA CONFERENCE 2019
The only LNG Focus Platform to Accelerate Investment and Cooperation in Western African Countries
LNG Western Africa Conference 2019 ...
Saturday, 13 April 19
IMO 2020 - DON'T SCRUB IT! - IVAR MYKLEBUST
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Höegh Autoliners stands firm on its decision not to implement scrubbers but comply with the IMO 2020 regulations by ...
Saturday, 13 April 19
CAPESIZE: WEST AUSTRALIA TO CHINA IRON ORE CARGOES LIFTING FROM $4.60 PMT TO ABOVE $5.00 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market saw a steep ascent from the depths of last week. The Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) 5TC opened on Monday at $5,099, although b ...
Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effecti ...
Friday, 12 April 19
OFFSHORE MENA CONGRESS 2019
Offshore MENA Congress 2019
Event Date : 11-12th Jun. 2019
Location : Cairo, Egypt
Offshore MENA Congress 2019 Offshor ...
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Showing 1416 to 1420 news of total 6871 |
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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