We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 10 April 19
CHINA'S GROWING THERMAL COAL SUPPLY TO PRESSURE EXPORTERS - FITCH RATINGS
Growing Chinese thermal coal supply is likely to lead to further tightening of import controls by the government, putting pressure on seaborne coal ...
Wednesday, 10 April 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The tragedy in Brazil’s Vale Brumadinho where a tailings dam collapsed in January ranks among the world’s worst mining disasters. It co ...
Monday, 08 April 19
5TH INDIA NUCLEAR NEW BUILD CONGRESS 2019
5th India Nuclear New Build Congress 2019
The congress in Mumbai aims to bring together representatives from governments, regulators ...
Monday, 08 April 19
THERMAL COAL PRICES FALL, INDIAN POWER PLANTS TO SEE LIMITED GAINS - BUSINESS STANDARD
Thermal coal prices are on a downward spiral globally. Australian coal prices have fallen nearly 20 per cent in the past week, and 40 per cent from ...
Monday, 08 April 19
CHEAP COAL SWELLS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA, FOILING GLOBAL GREEN PUSH - NIKKEI
Southeast Asian countries are turning to low-cost coal to satisfy their surging electricity demand as the West shies away from the fossil fuel unde ...
|
|
|
Showing 1426 to 1430 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
|
| |
| |
|
