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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 24 April 19
PANAMAX: IN THE EAST, THE MARKET MOVED SIDE-WAYS, WITH FEWER COAL CARGOES FROM INDONESIA PUTTING PRESSURE ON RATES - INTERMODAL
Sentiment in the Dry Bulk market slowly but steadily kept improving last week as Capesize rates remained in recovery mode and Panamax earnings also ...
Wednesday, 24 April 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - IS THIS A BANKERS' MARKET? - INTERMODAL
Over the last 10 years, many of the traditional and top lending banks have made the decision to either downsize their portfolios or even exit shipp ...
Monday, 22 April 19
COAL INDIA TO ASK POWER PLANTS TO CUT COAL IMPORTS - DNA
Co to encourage import substitution with domestic supplies at power plants
Surge in coal imports has now forced Coal India Ltd (CIL) ...
Thursday, 18 April 19
BIMCO SEES HARD TIMES AHEAD FOR CAPESIZES
China’s increased use of scrap metal for its production of crude steel is fundamentally critical to the dry bulk shipping industry. Mostly Ca ...
Wednesday, 17 April 19
ONCE AGAIN WE FACED WITH THE SITUATION OF THE DRY BALTIC INDEX BEING BELOW 1,000 POINTS - INTERMODAL
Once again we are faced with the situation of the Dry Baltic Index being below 1,000 points. In a market where the feeling of insecurity is almost ...
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Showing 1411 to 1415 news of total 6871 |
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Planning Commission, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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