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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 12 April 19
U.S : MORE THAN 7 GW OF COAL-FIRED GENERATION IS SCHEDULED TO RETIRE BY THE END OF 2020 - EIA
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production decreased by 19 million short tons (MMst) (2%) in 2018, totaling 756 MMst.
EIA also expects ...
Friday, 12 April 19
GLENCORE WINS $520 MILLION DEAL TO SELL COAL TO MEXICO - REUTERS
Global trader Glencore has won contracts worth around $520 million to supply 4.94 million tonnes of coal to Mexico, state-run power utility the Fed ...
Thursday, 11 April 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL IN THE FRONTLINE OF CHINA'S SUPPLY GLUT - AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW
Australian coal will be hardest hit as China cuts foreign imports of its key energy source to tackle oversupply, and implements policies favouring ...
Wednesday, 10 April 19
COALTRANS ASIA - TAKE PART IN THE LARGEST COAL EVENT IN THE WORLD!
Take part in the largest coal event in the world!
Coaltrans Asia is back this June bringing together the entire international coal s ...
Wednesday, 10 April 19
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 160K MT OF MIN. 3700 NCV COAL FOR JUNE LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 160,000 MT of min. 3,800 Kcal/kg ~max.4,100 ...
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Showing 1421 to 1425 news of total 6871 |
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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