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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 07 May 19
UNDOUBTEDLY A VERY TROUBLED YEAR FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, SAYS ALLIED SHIPPING
Undoubtedly a very troubled year for the dry bulk market says Allied Shipping in its latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis, Re ...
Saturday, 04 May 19
HOW THE 'FAIR VALUE' OF COAL ASSETS IS AFFECTED BY COMMODITY CYCLES - CRU
As with any commodity, valuing coal assets can be tricky due to the cyclical nature of the market. In this insight, CRU discusses how commodity cyc ...
Friday, 03 May 19
SUPRAMAX: WITH WIDESPREAD HOLIDAYS DURING THE WEEK, THE MARKET LACKED IMPETUS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market last week was a tale of two halves, with substantial volatility. Beginning the week on a positive note the C5 West Australi ...
Friday, 03 May 19
COAL INDIA APRIL OUTPUT RISES 1% TO 45.29 MILLION TONNE - PTI
Coal India Ltd (CIL) Wednesday said its coal production in April 2019 rose by 1 per cent to 45.29 million tonne as compared with 44.86 million tonn ...
Sunday, 28 April 19
SUPRAMAX: A 54,000DWT VESSEL OPEN GRESIK FIXED VIA AUSTRALIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, IN THE MID $12,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Following the holidays, activity increased in both the Pacific and Atlantic Basins. The 5TC average rallied, closing at $8,596, up $1, ...
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Showing 1406 to 1410 news of total 6871 |
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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