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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Irani ...
Monday, 13 May 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE CONTINUES TO FALL
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Monday, 13 May 19
SUPRAMAX: SOUTHEAST ASIA THE MARKET SAW BETTER DEMAND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Cape
The market continued its rollercoaster ride last week opening with negative sentiment, but turning around in dramatic fashion by the week& ...
Thursday, 09 May 19
DEEP OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST ASIA CONGRESS 2019
Deep Offshore Southeast Asia Congress 2019
Event Date:2-3th July. 2019t
Location: Jakarta, Indonesia
Sarawak Shell Berhad (S ...
Thursday, 09 May 19
OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN CONGRESS 2019
Offshore Caribbean Congress 2019
Event Date: 4-5th July. 2019t
Location: Georgetown, Guyana
Hess announced a new d ...
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Showing 1401 to 1405 news of total 6871 |
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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