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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Sunday, 26 May 19
SUPRAMAX: A LIMITED ACTIVITY WAS REPORTED, WITH THE UPCOMING INDONESIAN HOLIDAYS SLOWING COAL MOVEMENTS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The past week marked one of the busier periods for Capesizes this year. With a subdued start due to a public holiday in Singapore on M ...
Wednesday, 22 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The ship repair sector is showing a constant and gradual increase on the workload throughout the past months, with almost all the shipyards worldwi ...
Saturday, 18 May 19
SUPRAMAX: 56,000DWT OPEN PANJANG FIXING AT $10,500 FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, AND REDELIVERY CHINA - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
The market continues to ebb and flow with a generally positive up trend. The Capesize 5TC opened with upward momentum from last week&r ...
Friday, 17 May 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 16 May 19
SUPRAMAX: INDO/CHINA COAL RV TRADING AROUND US$ 9,000 BSS S.CHINA DELIVERY - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
This volatile segment is trying to find a clear direction from the present US$ 12,000/day earnings for standard units says Fearnleys W ...
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Showing 1396 to 1400 news of total 6871 |
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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