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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Sunday, 23 June 19
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000-DWT WAS FIXED FROM INDONESIA TO VIETNAM AT $10,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The story over the past week has been largely Atlantic dominated as the basin’s uniquely volatile characteristics came into play ...
Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. ...
Friday, 21 June 19
INDONESIA'S BAYAN RESOURCES SIGNED A COAL SUPPLY AGREEMENT WITH THE BANGLADESH BCPCL TO SUPPLY 23 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR 10 YEARS
On Monday, 17th June 2019, PT. Bayan Resources signed a Coal supply Agreement with the Bangladesh- China Power Company (Pvt.) Limited. BCPCL is a j ...
Thursday, 20 June 19
BUMI RESOURCES EXPECTS TO SELL 42 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN FIRST HALF - JAKARTA POST
PT Bumi Resources (BUMI), Indonesia's largest thermal coal miner, expects to close the first half of this year with coal sales of 42 million to ...
Tuesday, 18 June 19
TANKER SHIPPING: WHILE WE WAIT FOR 2020 TO KICK IN, IT'S ALL ABOUT POLITICS - BIMCO
Demand drivers and freight rates
Iran, Libya and Venezuela face export limitations because of sanctions and internal political troubles. At the s ...
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The University of Queensland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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