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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 12 June 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
This year’s tanker S&P activity keeps edging higher compared to the same period in 2018. Year to date we have seen some 143 ships, rangin ...
Tuesday, 11 June 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SET AT $81.48 PER TON IN JUNE, DOWN 15.66 PERCENT YEAR-ON-YEAR
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 10 June 19
CONSECUTIVE OWNERS OF CARGO: WHO HOLDS TITLE AND THE RIGHT TO SUE? - COLIN BIGGERS & PAISLEY
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In Tritton Resources Pty Ltd v Ever Rock Navigation S.A. [2019] FCA 276, the Federal Court considered the application of ...
Monday, 10 June 19
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1,305,000 MT OF MIN 5600 KCAL/KG NCV COAL FOR SEPT 2019 TO DEC 2021
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 435,000 MT (per year) of max 5,600 kcal/kg N ...
Sunday, 09 June 19
SUPRAMAX: ASIA LOST GROUND; THE INDIAN OCEAN SAW SLOWER ACTIVITY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market continued in an unusually steady ascent last week. With no major news in the market, each day improved on the last, breakin ...
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Showing 1386 to 1390 news of total 6871 |
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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