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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 10 July 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITES BIDS FOR HCV AND LCV COAL FOR AUGUST 2019 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for total 460,000 to 500,000 Metric To ...
Wednesday, 10 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In contrast with the general expectations for the dry bulk market, the sector was not positive or even stable during the past 6 months. The warning ...
Monday, 08 July 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE POSTS BIGGEST MONTHLY LOSS SINCE JANUARY 2017
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 08 July 19
ULTRAMAX: A 52,000-TONNER OPEN CJK FIXED FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA WITH RE-DELIVERY CHINA AT $6,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market surged over the past week, reaching highs not seen since August last year. Widespread activity in both basins saw ...
Wednesday, 03 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The global shipping industry is facing numerous challenges at a time when geopolitical turmoil has escalated in view of the recent tension in the M ...
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The University of Queensland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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