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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Saturday, 15 June 19
SUPRAMAX: A 58,000-TONNER, OPEN QINGDAO, WAS BOOKED TO REDELIVER IN EAST COAST INDIA AT $6,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market closed on a quiet Friday last week after a few hectic days of mid-week trading. Trade routes from Brazil to the Far East we ...
Friday, 14 June 19
PANAMAX: OUTLOOK IS MIXED - FERNLEYS
Capesize
Sentiment changed to a more nervous tone as pacific cargo volumes failed to deliver as expected, however latest activity indicates res ...
Friday, 14 June 19
ELECTRONIC (PAPERLESS) TRADING - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Electronic Shipping Solutions: Bolero International Ltd, E-Title Authority Pte Ltd, Global Share S.A. (edoxOnline platfor ...
Wednesday, 12 June 19
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 140,000 MT OF 4,600 NCV COAL FOR SEP. 2019 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 140,000 MT of minimum 4,600 kcal/kg NCV coal ...
Wednesday, 12 June 19
IMO 2020 - COUNTDOWN TO 1 JANUARY 2020 -HOW WILL THE CHANGES AFFECT REFINING AND SHIPPING? - WOOD MACKENZIE
We know that the IMO’s regulations represent the biggest step change the shipping industry has ever seen and the implications will be felt th ...
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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