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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 01 July 19
COAL DEMAND RISES, BUT REMAINS BELOW PEAK LEVELS - FORBES
This article is the third in a series on BP’s recently-released Statistical Review of World Energy 2019. The Review provides a comprehensive ...
Saturday, 29 June 19
ULTRAMAX: FROM SOUTHEAST ASIA MORE COAL WAS ENTERING THE MARKET - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market showed variability over the past week, as most routes were active yet sentiment differed from region to region. The Pacific ...
Wednesday, 26 June 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the first half of the year is almost over, it is worth looking back at the sale and purchase activity during these months, focusing on the segme ...
Tuesday, 25 June 19
THERMAL COAL FUTURES ON THE ZHENGSHOU EXCHANGE ROSE - DANIEL HYNES
Coal markets were buoyed by ongoing supply side issues.
According to Daniel Hynes, Senior Commodity Strategist of ANZ, the the ...
Monday, 24 June 19
KOMIPO INVITED BITUMINOUS COAL BIDS FOR BORYEONG & SHIN BORYEONG POWER PLANTS
South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 260,000 MT MT of min. 5700 NAR coal and 240,000 MT of min. 4,600 k ...
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Planning Commission, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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