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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 26 September 19
INDIA INCREASES ITS ANNUAL COAL PRODUCTION BY 2.7% PER YEAR FROM 850 MILLION SHORT TONS IN 2018 TO 2 BILLION SHORT TONS BY 2050 - EIA
Worldwide coal production holds steady at about 8 billion short tons, or 160 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu), per year through 2040. Inc ...
Wednesday, 25 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In the past five months there has been significant activity in the asset market with the dry bulk segment being by far the most volatile in terms o ...
Tuesday, 24 September 19
9TH ANNUAL SUPPLY CHAIN INNOVATION SUMMIT 2019 ASIA PACIFIC
Summit: 9th Annual Supply Chain Innovation Summit 2019 Asia Pacific
Host: Ace Events
Website: http: ...
Monday, 23 September 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA IT WAS A SLOW START, BUT DEMAND INCREASED AS THE WEEK WENT ON - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market trended down over this past week, breaking the market out of its upward trending range. While the market traded sideways at ...
Monday, 23 September 19
CHINA RECORDS SLOWER GROWTH IN COAL PRODUCTION - XINHUA
The growth of China’s raw coal production slowed down in August, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed.
Aro ...
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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