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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA TO INVITE BIDS FOR COMMERCIAL COAL MINING IN DECEMBER - MINISTER FOR COAL
India aims to begin the process of holding the first round of commercial coal mining auctions December end, Minister for Coal, Mines and Parliament ...
Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA: ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN IMPACTS COAL IMPORT CARGO IN H1 FY20 - PTI
Economic slowdown has impacted coal import cargo in the first half of this fiscal, as overall cargo growth at major ports registered a marginal gro ...
Wednesday, 18 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
During the first week of September, I had the privilege of attending the Donsö Shipping Meet 2019, in Donsö, a small island of around 1,& ...
Tuesday, 17 September 19
PANAMA SHIP REGISTRY MODERNIZES SHIP REGISTRATION
The Panama Ship Registry has announced it will integrate in a single platform “Electronic Ship Registration System (ESRS)” the present ...
Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the ...
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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