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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 10 October 19
THERMAL COAL IMPORT LIKELY TO CROSS 200 MT IN 2019-20 - TIME OF INDIA
The country's overall thermal coal import is likely to cross the 200-million tonnes (MT) mark in the current financial year, according to Icra. ...
Wednesday, 09 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we have already stated in previous insights, we had expected that the recovery on rates and activity across all segments in the offshore market ...
Thursday, 03 October 19
OIL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS UNCHANGED, NBP GAS PRICE LOWERED - FITCH RATINGS PRIMARY - FITCH RATINGS
Our oil price assumptions are unchanged, despite the recent price volatility following the attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure, Fitch ...
Thursday, 03 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
Edible oil products across the board are showing healthy amount of export activity, however, rates in most cases are struggling to move accordingly ...
Friday, 27 September 19
LOWDOWN ON INCOTERMS 2020 OVERHAUL - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
This ninth revision of Incoterms is changed in style and substance. The revisions improve certain aspects of Incoterms 20 ...
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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