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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 16 September 19
COLOMBIAN COAL PRODUCTION TO FALL 5% THIS YEAR, MINING GROUP SAYS - REUTERS
Colombia’s coal production will decline to around 80 million tonnes in 2019, nearly 5% below last year’s, because of low prices and dro ...
Monday, 16 September 19
THE COAL-D SHOULDER? - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Good fortune and the number 13 don’t usually go hand in hand, but when it comes to coal, 2013 actually seems to have been the commodity&rsquo ...
Monday, 16 September 19
SCRUBBERS AND FUEL PROFIT SHARE CLAUSES - CLYDE&CO
From 1 January 2020, Regulation 14 of MARPOL Annex VI provides that the sulphur content in fuel oil used on board ships shall be reduced from a max ...
Monday, 16 September 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITES BIDS FOR MAX 1,290,000 METRIC TONS OF STEAMING COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd has issued an international tender for total 1,290,000 Metric Tons steam coal.
...
Sunday, 15 September 19
SUPRAMAX / ULTRAMAX: MORE STEMS WERE NOTICED GOING TO VIETNAM FROM INDONESIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Overall it was a negative week for the Capesize market, with many routes losing ground. A limited amount of time charter appeare ...
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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