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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing ...
Sunday, 13 October 19
INDONESIA: PANAMAX VESSELS OPEN SOUTH CHINA WERE REPORTEDLY FIXED AT $14,000 LEVEL, WITH REDELIVERY BACK IN CHINA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market managed to find a floor and rally a little this week after several weeks of declines. While the West Australia to ...
Friday, 11 October 19
INDIAN MINERS REJECT PLAN TO LINK NATIONAL COAL INDEX TO FOREIGN PRICES - REUTERS
India’s miners are rejecting a government proposal to establish a national coal index that would be linked to international prices, documents ...
Friday, 11 October 19
THE OCTOBER BENCHMARK PRICE OF INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL DECLINES TO LOWEST SINCE OCTOBER 2016
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Friday, 11 October 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER TO IMPORT LCV COAL IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 75,000 Metric Tons low calorific v ...
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Showing 1316 to 1320 news of total 6871 |
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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