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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 17 October 19
INDIA READIES POLICY TO ATTRACT FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN COAL MINING - REUTERS
India expects to have formulated a policy within the next two weeks to attract foreign investment to its coal mining industry, the country’s ...
Wednesday, 16 October 19
INDIA CALLS FOR A RESET OF CLIMATE DEBATE ON COAL AS A FUEL - LIVEMINT
India on Tuesday called for a reset on climate debate on coal as a fuel, in the backdrop of India becoming one of the top renewable energy producer ...
Wednesday, 16 October 19
LESSONS LEARNT FROM CREW INJURED IN HEAVY WEATHER - UK P&I CLUB COMMENTS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Stuart Edmonston, Loss Prevention at UK P&I Club, discusses an incident in which crew were injured whilst on deck in ...
Wednesday, 16 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In perhaps the most interesting market conditions of the past years, the tanker and the dry bulk industry have created a positive sentiment with re ...
Tuesday, 15 October 19
INDIA READIES POLICY TO ATTRACT FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN COAL MINING - REUTERS
India expects to have formulated a policy within the next two weeks to attract foreign investment to its coal mining industry, the country's Co ...
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Showing 1311 to 1315 news of total 6871 |
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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