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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 21 October 19
COAL TO PLAY SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN SOUTH AFRICA POWER MIX - MINISTER, REUTERS REPORTED
South Africa’s plans for additional power generation over the next decade will involve a variety of energy sources, with coal still playing a ...
Monday, 21 October 19
ULTRAMAX: IN ASIA, TRIPS FROM THE SINGAPORE AREA WERE PAYING BETWEEN $14,000 AND $16,000, DEPENDING ON THE VESSEL SIZE AND DURATION - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market traded in a relatively stable supported manner in the Pacific this week while the Atlantic experienced weakening turbulence ...
Friday, 18 October 19
WHY CRUDE TANKER RATES JUST FELL (HALFWAY) BACK TO EARTH - FREIGHT WAVES
Panic drove crude-tanker rates up, very briefly, to mind-bogglingly high assessed levels of around $300,000 per day. Now, the fear factor has been ...
Friday, 18 October 19
SHORT TERM STRENGTH FOR OZ COMMODITIES - BALTIC BRIEFING
Volatility in the global commodity markets is not expected to unduly rattle Australia’s commodity outlook through 2020, but the 2021 picture ...
Friday, 18 October 19
SINGAPORE'S APEX TO LAUNCH LOW-SULFUR FUEL OIL CONTRACT AHEAD OF NEW SHIPPING RULES - REUTERS
Singapore-based Asia Pacific Exchange (APEX) will launch a low-sulfur fuel oil (LSFO) futures contract on Friday aimed at helping shipping and ener ...
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Showing 1306 to 1310 news of total 6871 |
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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