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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 24 October 19
PANAMAX: NEGATIVE SENTIMENT IN THE MARKET AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The market has continued to slide the last week, as lack of fresh requirements and a slight oversupply of tonnage heading towards Sout ...
Wednesday, 23 October 19
CHINA'S 2019 COAL IMPORTS SET TO RISE MORE THAN 10%: ANALYSTS - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal buyer, is on track to boost imports of the fuel by more than 10% this year, traders and analysts said on Tuesday, ...
Wednesday, 23 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Moving closer to the end of the year, we are facing what the market was expecting for quite a while, the ship repair sector booming with the shipya ...
Tuesday, 22 October 19
DRY BULK: DESPITE THE DOWNWARD CORRECTION NOTED OVER THE PAST MONTH, RATES ARE STILL HOLDING OFF AT FAVORABLE LEVELS - ALLIED SHIPPING
Despite the downward correction that has been noted in the dry bulk market over the past month, rates are still holding off at favorable levels. Ev ...
Monday, 21 October 19
SHIPPERS CHANGE COURSE AS FUEL RULES TARGET SULPHUR EMISSIONS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The International Maritime Organization (IMO), the industry’s regulator, will require all ships to reduce the level of sulphur in their engin ...
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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