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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Monday, 04 November 19
PANAMAX: WEAKER SENTIMENTS CONTINUED FROM LAST WEEK, WITH RATES FURTHER SOFTENING IN BOTH BASINS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market meandered slightly upwards this week before giving back much of its gains mid-week. Opening the week at $24,945, t ...
Thursday, 31 October 19
U.S. COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS SCHEDULED TO SHUT - REUTERS
U.S. power companies expect to retire or convert from coal to gas over 13,800 megawatts (MW) of coal-fired plants in 2019 after shutting over 13,30 ...
Thursday, 31 October 19
SE ASIA MAY BECOME NET FOSSIL FUEL IMPORTER IN COMING YEARS - IEA
Southeast Asia is set to become a key driver of world energy trends over the next 20 years as its energy demand grows at twice the global average, ...
Monday, 28 October 19
ULTRAMAX: ASIA RATES REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE WITH THE NORTH LACKING FRESH ENQUIRY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The end of the week brought about a small increase in sentiment heading into a long weekend for some regions. After sustaining a drop ...
Thursday, 24 October 19
AUSTRALIA'S HOPES TO EXPAND COAL EXPORTS IN SOUTH-EAST ASIA 'DELUSIONAL', EXPERTS SAY - THE GUARDIAN
The number of new coal-fired power plants starting construction across south-east Asia has fallen markedly over the past two years as Australia has ...
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Showing 1296 to 1300 news of total 6871 |
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- White Energy Company Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Coal Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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