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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 13 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The improvements seen in the dry bulk market during the unexpectedly strong Q3 brought enthusiasm and optimism for a last quarter rally. Indeed as ...
Tuesday, 12 November 19
COAL IMPORTS AT MAJOR PORTS SLIP 18 PC TO 51 MT IN APRIL-OCTOBER - ECONOMIC TIMES
The Indian Ports Association (IPA), which maintains cargo data handled by these 12 ports, in its recent report, said "percentage variation fro ...
Monday, 11 November 19
EMINENT MARITIME ORGANIZATIONS AND INDIVIDUALS WERE HONORED
SHIPTEK 2019 Anchors in Greece for its 12th edition.
Eminent Maritime Organizations and Individuals were honored
Greec ...
Wednesday, 06 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With less than two months before the end of the year, the shipping and refining industries have already taken measures and invested to accommodate ...
Monday, 04 November 19
COAL INDIA'S OCTOBER PRODUCTION MAY FALL 20% - PTI
Coal India’s production in October is likely to be 19-20 per cent lower at about 40 million tonne, as compared to 49.77 million tonne produce ...
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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