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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 19 December 19
BANGLADESH'S NBR CUTS VAT ON COAL IMPORT FOR POWER PLANTS - THE DAILY STAR
The National Board of Revenue (NBR) reduced value added tax on the import of coal for power plants to 5 percent from present 15 percent for five ye ...
Wednesday, 18 December 19
AVERAGE PRICES OF COAL IN 2018 WERE MORE THAN 60% HIGHER THAN IN 2016 - IEA
Coal use grew again in 2018.
Global coal demand increased by 1.1%, continuing the rebound that began in 2017 after three years of decline ...
Wednesday, 18 December 19
ASIA IS SET TO SUPPORT GLOBAL COAL DEMAND FOR THE NEXT FIVE YEARS - IEA
Press Release: Global coal demand is expected to decline in 2019 but remain broadly stable over the next five years, supported by robust growth in ...
Wednesday, 18 December 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we all know very well by now, the reduction in the maximum allowable sulphur content of marine fuels in 2020 is likely to have a massive impact ...
Tuesday, 17 December 19
AUSTRALIA ENERGY MARKET OPERATOR TURNS SCROOGE ON COAL LOBBY: RUSSELL
Australia, which vies with Indonesia for the title of the world’s largest coal exporter, is planning for an electricity future where use of t ...
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Showing 1236 to 1240 news of total 6871 |
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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