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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 12 December 19
KOWEPO INVITING BIDS FOR 2.28 MILLION TONS OF MIN.4,400 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an international tender for total 2,280,000 tons of (Sub) Bitum ...
Wednesday, 11 December 19
PANAMAX: THE MARKET REMAINED FIRM IN THE PACIFIC, WITH INCREASED ACTIVITY NOTED IN KEY AREAS, SUCH AS INDONESIA - ALLIED
Capesize – Positive momentum was resumed this past week, with earnings mak-ing some gains once again. This rising pattern was reflected in th ...
Tuesday, 10 December 19
PREPARATIONS INTENSIFY AS IMO 2020 GLOBAL SULPHUR CAP LOOMS - STANDARD CLUB
With less than a month to go for the impending IMO 2020 global sulphur cap, the club has started witnessing dispute cases relating to the measureme ...
Monday, 09 December 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER CO LTD IS INVITING OFFERS FOR MIN 3700 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd has issued an international tender for 160,000 Tons steam coal.
Acco ...
Saturday, 07 December 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The University of Queensland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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