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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Sunday, 22 December 19
TRADING PLACES FOR 2020 - BALTIC EXCHANGE
In the sea of 2020 predictions, Saxo Bank’s Outrageous Predictions sail their own very unique course. For nearly 20 years the Danish investme ...
Saturday, 21 December 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000 DWT VESSEL, OPEN CIGADING, FIXED A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $8,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week has been attempting to recalibrate itself in consideration of weakening freight levels and increasi ...
Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling t ...
Friday, 20 December 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 19 December 19
COAL POWER GENERATION CONTINUES TO DECLINE IN GERMANY: DESTATIS, XINHUA REPORTED
The volume of electricity generated in coal-fired power plants in Germany decreased “markedly” by 37 percent to 34 billion kilowatt-hou ...
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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